Gale Warning 66, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
147 PM ADT SAT OCT 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA
AS COLD CLOSED LOW VCNTY BERING STRAIT WEAKENS AND RIDGE ALONG
135W BUILDS.

A DEVELOPING 960 MB SFC LOW...FUELED BY AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING AND THENCE TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
TUESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCFNT WILL BOOM NORTHWARD MONDAY..TO
BE WAY NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST BY TUE. MEANWHILE...1037 MB SFC
HIGH WELL NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO EAST OF BANKS ISLAND BY
EARLY TUE. ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WILL HOLD THRU
SUNDAY BUT THEN WILL BE ERODED AWAY SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM
OCCLUSION COMES BLASTING THRU.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BASIC PATTERN...THOUGH NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE IN MOS OUTPUT. OVERALL WE TEND TOWARD GFS.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...MAJOR PROBLEM NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE HIGH
WINDS. WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...PALTRY SNOW COVER AND LITTLE OR
NO DYNAMICS FOR FALLING SNOW...WE HAVE MORPHED THE WINTER STORM
WATCHES INTO HIGH WIND WARNINGS STARTING EARLY SUN FOR THE COAST.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION IS AT LEAST NEUTRAL THRU SUNDAY...SO
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE A DECENT BET IN AT LEAST SOME PLACES.
CORRESPONDING WINDS OFFSHORE ENOUGH FOR THE RARE STORM WARNINGS
AND 20 PLUS FOOT SEAS...THOUGH NO COASTAL ISSUES AS WATER
TRANSPORT IS AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SMARTLY
MON AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS DROP OFF SOME AS WARM ADVECTION
EXTENDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

FOR THE WEST COAST...OLD LOW ALOFT SW OF NOME WILL SPIN IN PLACE
BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME TIME TOMORROW. SOME DISORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN
AND SNOW ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG ABOUT 158W. AS DEEP
NORTH PACIFIC LOW PLOWS NORTH A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE LOW TRACK.

FOR THE INTERIOR...SIGNIFICANT BUT FAIRLY SHORT LIVED CHINOOK STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THE
INTERIOR SHOULD SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON AND/OR TUE...AND
AREAS WITHOUT SNOW COVER HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RECORD TEMPS.
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST TO RETURN BY THURSDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAY 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ206-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RT OCT 06