Gale Warning 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
553 AM AST FRI FEB 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING
OF THE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE NECK OF KAMCHATKA AT THIS TIME...
MOVING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA AT 3AM
SAT AND DEEPENING IT TO ABOUT 988 MB. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME TUNE THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN PLAYING FOR DAYS NOW...THOUGH
THE LOW IS NOT NOW EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP AS THE GFS WOULD HAVE
HAD IT A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT
BOTH HAVE IT DECELERATING SHARPLY AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. WE
ARE USING THE GFS POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW...MORE OR LESS
RIGHT UNDER THE LOW ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OPEN AT THIS POINT OF COURSE...IT WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUSION AS IT MOVES ONTO OUR WEST COAST
...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE DISTINCT WARM AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
FROM NOME SOUTH...AND MAYBE FARTHER NORTH. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY...
WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE RELATIVELY MODEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXPECTED THERE (AS COMPARED TO OUR QPFS FOR THE WEST COAST ZONES).
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM IN THE INTERIOR THOUGH...MOST NOTABLY ON THE HILLS.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIKELY REMAINING CENTERED SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH OF A WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE ARCTIC COAST...EXCEPT FOR SOME WIND. ZONE 201 COULD
BLIZ THOUGH AS THE THING COMES IN.

WE HAVE DELIBERATELY BROAD BRUSHED THE POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR ZONES. THE MODELS...THE ETA IN
PARTICULAR...APPEAR TO HAVE THIS A BIT UNDERDONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ217-AKZ219.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

DJH FEB 06