Brisk Wind Advisory 62, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AST THU FEB 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY...WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
ABOUT 1024 MB AT SURFACE CENTERED BETWEEN PAGA AND PAMC.
IT IS SLOWLY SINKING SE...AND ALL MODELS SHOW BULK OF ENERGY
WITH IT SPLITTING AND HEADING INTO GULF AK TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NET UPPER RIDGE OVER INTERIOR.

NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE/UPPER LOW SEEN ON
GMS IMAGERY JUST W OF KAMCHATKA. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
MOVING A WEAKENING WARM FRONTAL BAND FROM THIS ACROSS CENTRAL
BERING TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING OVER WRN INTERIOR FRI. THEN
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH ABOUT 985 MB SURFACE REFLECTION
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CHUKCHI SEA SAT. GFS MOVES SURFACE LOW
TOO RAPIDLY INLAND AND THROUGH NRN AK SAT/SUN...WHILE ECMWF
AND MESO-ETA SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN SHOWING SLOWER/WEAKER
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAST-MOVING FRONT
WITH POTENT DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN STRONG CONSOLIDATED SW-WRLY
FLOW AND GOOD CAA CHARGING ACROSS INTERIOR SAT...FOLLOWED BY
BRISK SW-WRLY FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER INTERIOR SUN.
ECMWF KEEPS STRONGER UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AK MON/TUE
...WHILE GFS WEAKENS IT AND KEEPS IT A LITTLE FURTHER W AS
RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF IT FROM A LOW IN THE GULF AK. ECMWF
SOLUTION THEREFORE MUCH COLDER FOR INTERIOR THAN GFS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

W COAST: SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ST LAWRENCE ISLE
WITH WARM FRONTAL BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH WIND FOR BLSN ISSUES.
SNOW WITH THIS WILL WEAKEN AND BE CONFINED TO MAINLY COASTAL
MARGIN TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. TRAILING COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY CHARGE
EAST LATE FRI/EARLY SAT BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND BWA OR
GALE FORCE WINDS. THUS...BLIZZARD WATCHES ARE UP FOR ZONES 207
THROUGH 214 FRI NIGHT/SAT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT/
SUN AS LOW MOVES E AND WEAKENS.

N SLOPE: LIGHT S WINDS TONIGHT/EARLY FRI WILL KEEP WEATHER MAINLY
CLEAR. INCREASING SE AND E WINDS FRI NIGHT/SAT IN ADVANCE OF
LOW/FRONT. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SLOPE SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH BULK
OF SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF PASC/PAQT.
THUS BLIZZARD WATCHES CONFINED TO ZONES 201/202 FRI/SAT. WITH LOW
FORECAST TO SLIDE E TO THE SOUTH...WINDS AND SNOW TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY SAT NIGHT/SUN.

INTERIOR: SNOW WITH WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN WRN INTERIOR
HAS MADE IT AS FAR E AS PATA-PAMH. WITH BULK OF ENERGY SLIDING SE
INTO GULF AK...PROBABLY ONLY FLURRIES TO MAKE IT FURTHER E ACROSS
REST OF INTERIOR TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. RIDGING FRI WITH JUST REMNANT
CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATED WARM FRONTAL BAND WILL GIVE WAY SAT TO HARD
CHARGING COLD FRONT. WITH THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND STRONG
CONSOLIDATED SW-WRLY FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WITH IT...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ZONES 219/220/221/222 COULD EASILY SEE 3-5
SNOWFALL OR MORE. PERIODS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE SUN/SUN NIGHT MOST
AREAS WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF STRONG SW-W FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW.
CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURNING MON/TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

MAR FEB 06