Brisk Wind Advisory 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
557 AM AST THU FEB 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL IS PROBABLY ABOUT 8 MB DEEPER THAN
THE MODELS WOULD HAVE IT...MAYBE WORSE. THIS COMES AS NO GREAT
SURPRISE...AS THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE DEVELOPMENTS NEAR THE ICE
EDGE WELL. THE LOW WILL PRESUMABLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
NORTHEAST AND MOVES OVER THE ICE LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MAY WELL
REMAIN DEEPER THAN CURRENT MODEL RUNS WOULD HAVE IT AS IT APPROACHES
NOME FRI MORNING. THAT SAID...WE ARE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH OUR
FORECASTS FOR THE WEST COAST. WIND CHILL IS LIKELY TO BE THE BIGGEST
PROBLEM FROM THIS ONE. IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A SNOW
PRODUCER BY THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHERN ALASKA...AND THERE APPEARS
TO BE NO POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE FEATURE MAY PRODUCE WIND CHILL PROBLEMS AS FAR EAST AS ZONES
219 AND 221.

THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WELL. THIS FEATURE HAS IS A REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA ON WED (A REMNANT
OF WHICH ALSO PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AREA). THE NEW LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AND STRENGTHEN THE
OLD LOW PRESENTLY IN THE MACKENZIE BAY AREA. WE HAVE INCREASED
THE WINDS IN ZONES 203 AND 204 TONIGHT UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT
THE FEATURE WILL REMAIN STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ216-AKZ217.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ209.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

DJH FEB 06