Storm Warning 51, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 061250
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 963 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF MON MORNING AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND MON EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 70 KT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 35 KT LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 55 KT NORTHWEST OF BARREN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SEAS 19 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 55 KT S OF KALGIN ISLAND THIS MORNING. SEAS IN ICE 
FREE WATERS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN FEB 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE ANCHOR MAJOR UPPER LOW FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
A COMPLEX OVER SIBERIA WITH ONE UPPER CENTER JUST SW OF THE
PRIBILOFS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF EXTENDS SE OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA IS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WHICH IS ALSO
CONNECTED TO A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA AND
THE LOWER-48. THE UPPER TROF IS SUPPORT FOR A 965 MB LOW OVER THE
PRIBILOFS AT 12Z. SATELLITE PIX AT 18Z SHOW ANOTHER STORM 965 MB NEAR
51N 155W THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. ON THE GULF SIDE THE
MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING HURRICANE FORCE THIS MORNING DUE TO A
VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERING SEA LOW AND A 1031
MB HIGH CELL INLAND OVER B.C.  PRECIP WITH THIS STORM HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES EXCEPT FOR VALDEZ AND HOMER. A VERY
STRONG JET HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL AT 150+ KT WITH A
BROAD EXIT AROUND 40N 155W. ANYONE IN THE GULF IS GETTING HAMMERED.
SOME SEAS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT 30+ FEET.

AER FORECASTS - WINTER STORM WARNING MAKING A WHITE OUT MESS AROUND
PORTAGE AND BIRD POINT PLUS WARMING ON THE WAY. SURELY THERE WILL BE
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS ONE UNTIL ALL TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE AK-ETA-12 IS PREFERRED ON THIS
SHIFT DUE TO THE DETAIL OF A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ON THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF
HURRICANE GUSTS TO THE MARINE AREAS TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL BARRIER
JET FORMS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO
SLEETMUTE BY 00Z TUE FOR ONE HUGE BLAST OF WIND THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM
AND EAST ANCHORAGE WITH CHINOOK TEMPS. LOOK FOR RAPID COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ALU FORECASTS - AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING SEA FIZZLES OUT
TONIGHT NEAR ST MATTHEW...THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER
THE BERING SEA FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER K-VALLEY MONDAY SOME SURFACE RIDGING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. BY TUE AFTERNOON THE GFS-190 MOVES
A 980 MB GALE FORCE LOW INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 125.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101. SNOW ADV 145.
MARINE...STORM 120 130. HVY FRZ SPRAY 179.
  GALES 125 132 138 140 141 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC FEB 06