Gale Warning 142, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 061928 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1030 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

UPDATED ZONES 170 172

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 970 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A
964 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA
BY TUESDAY MORNING. A 985 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE
TO 275 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK BY TUESDAY MORNING AND MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH. CLEVELAND VOLCANO IS ACTIVE.

$$

PKZ150-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-070300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-070300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-070300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW WIND 20 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1030 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...VOLCANIC ASHFALL ADVISORY TODAY..

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-070300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
1030 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...VOLCANIC ASHFALL ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
1030 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-070300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-070300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN 
ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN FEB 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE ANCHOR MAJOR UPPER LOW FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
A COMPLEX OVER SIBERIA WITH ONE UPPER CENTER JUST SW OF THE
PRIBILOFS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF EXTENDS SE OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA IS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WHICH IS ALSO
CONNECTED TO A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA AND
THE LOWER-48. THE UPPER TROF IS SUPPORT FOR A 965 MB LOW OVER THE
PRIBILOFS AT 12Z. SATELLITE PIX AT 18Z SHOW ANOTHER STORM 965 MB NEAR
51N 155W THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. ON THE GULF SIDE THE
MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING HURRICANE FORCE THIS MORNING DUE TO A
VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERING SEA LOW AND A 1031
MB HIGH CELL INLAND OVER B.C.  PRECIP WITH THIS STORM HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES EXCEPT FOR VALDEZ AND HOMER. A VERY
STRONG JET HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL AT 150+ KT WITH A
BROAD EXIT AROUND 40N 155W. ANYONE IN THE GULF IS GETTING HAMMERED.
SOME SEAS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT 30+ FEET.

AER FORECASTS - WINTER STORM WARNING MAKING A WHITE OUT MESS AROUND
PORTAGE AND BIRD POINT PLUS WARMING ON THE WAY. SURELY THERE WILL BE
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS ONE UNTIL ALL TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE AK-ETA-12 IS PREFERRED ON THIS
SHIFT DUE TO THE DETAIL OF A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ON THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF
HURRICANE GUSTS TO THE MARINE AREAS TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL BARRIER
JET FORMS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO
SLEETMUTE BY 00Z TUE FOR ONE HUGE BLAST OF WIND THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM
AND EAST ANCHORAGE WITH CHINOOK TEMPS. LOOK FOR RAPID COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ALU FORECASTS - AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING SEA FIZZLES OUT
TONIGHT NEAR ST MATTHEW...THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER
THE BERING SEA FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER K-VALLEY MONDAY SOME SURFACE RIDGING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. BY TUE AFTERNOON THE GFS-190 MOVES
A 980 MB GALE FORCE LOW INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 125.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101. SNOW ADV 145.
MARINE...STORM 120 130. HVY FRZ SPRAY 179.
  GALES 125 132 138 140 141 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC FEB 06