Storm Warning 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 050016
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 961 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT
REMAINS OVER THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN
WEAKENS TO 967 MB MON AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES TO NUNIVAK ISLAND. A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 960 MB AS IT MOVES NEAR SITKINAK SUN
EVENING AND THEN MOVES INLAND.
$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT.

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY ON
THE BERING SIDE. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI FEB 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RETROGRADE WITH A PIECE MOVING TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY
AND DROP INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY MID WEEK. THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN CURRENTLY TO ROLL INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. THIS AMPLIFIES RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE JET STREAM TO MOVE
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN BERING LOW SATURDAY AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
OVER THE GULF. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY
CONTINUALLY MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD ALLOWING MORE ENERGY
INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. BY MID WEEK...A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BUILDING THE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUPPORTED WELL WITH A
STRONG JET AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
MAKING FOR SOME STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IN A FEW
SPOTS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE CHAIN BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
LESSEN BUT REMAIN OVER THE PRIBILOFS TILL TOMORROW WHEN THE FRONT
PASSES THERE. STRONG WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND THE LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE
COLD AIR OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS LOW PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
INTO THE GULF SATURDAY AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT TO THE COAST. HAVE
ISSUED AND WILL ISSUE ADDITIONAL HIGH WIND WATCHES WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE JET IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FIRST LOW TO ROLL INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIGHT BEHIND THIS ONE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND TO THE
NORTHERN COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE AFTER WAVE SCENARIO WILL KEEP
VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES TO RAISE QUITE A BIT. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIMITED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO AREAS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSLOPE
AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...MAY SEE SIMILAR
SCENARIO OF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARM WITH FLURRIES OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CITY. ALSO MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
BETWEEN.

THE LAST WAVE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING TO HELP LIFT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL COMPLEX OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA NORTH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AS THIS SWEEPS NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL PERMIT MANY SURFACE LOWS WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. A
LOW WILL WORK IN THE FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185 195
         HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY 171
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 138 140 150 165 179
         STORM 130 132 150 155 160 180
         GALE 120 129 138 165 170 171 172 175 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...

JN FEB 06