Gale Warning 131, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI FEB 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RETROGRADE WITH A PIECE MOVING TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY
AND DROP INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY MID WEEK. THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN CURRENTLY TO ROLL INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. THIS AMPLIFIES RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE JET STREAM TO MOVE
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN BERING LOW SATURDAY AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
OVER THE GULF. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY
CONTINUALLY MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD ALLOWING MORE ENERGY
INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. BY MID WEEK...A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BUILDING THE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUPPORTED WELL WITH A
STRONG JET AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
MAKING FOR SOME STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IN A FEW
SPOTS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE CHAIN BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
LESSEN BUT REMAIN OVER THE PRIBILOFS TILL TOMORROW WHEN THE FRONT
PASSES THERE. STRONG WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND THE LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE
COLD AIR OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS LOW PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
INTO THE GULF SATURDAY AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT TO THE COAST. HAVE
ISSUED AND WILL ISSUE ADDITIONAL HIGH WIND WATCHES WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE JET IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FIRST LOW TO ROLL INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIGHT BEHIND THIS ONE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND TO THE
NORTHERN COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE AFTER WAVE SCENARIO WILL KEEP
VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES TO RAISE QUITE A BIT. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIMITED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO AREAS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSLOPE
AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...MAY SEE SIMILAR
SCENARIO OF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARM WITH FLURRIES OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CITY. ALSO MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
BETWEEN.

THE LAST WAVE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING TO HELP LIFT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL COMPLEX OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA NORTH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AS THIS SWEEPS NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL PERMIT MANY SURFACE LOWS WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. A
LOW WILL WORK IN THE FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185 195
         HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY 171
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 138 140 150 165 179
         STORM 130 132 150 155 160 180
         GALE 120 129 138 165 170 171 172 175 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...

JN FEB 06