Storm Warning 243, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181432 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
530 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

UPDATE TO ZONE 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 977 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO
75 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AT 953 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS BECOMING SW 15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2
FT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
530 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...
...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W TO SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W TO SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS TO 8 FT. HIGHEST
SEAS SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER BAY. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 190000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 967 MB LOW 540 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 948 MB
270 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INLAND
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD SW WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 2 FT EXCEPT 7 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS EAST...W WIND 15 KT.  SEAS 12
FT. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT NORTH OF ANCHOR POINT. SOUTH OF 
ANCHOR POINT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT EXCEPT 8 FT SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT BECOMING 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM MODEL HAS INITIALIZED POORLY THIS MORNING AND IS OUT OF STEP
WITH THE GFS AND THE UKMET MODELS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS HAS
GOOD INITIALIZATION AND BEEN GIVING A CONSISTANT SOLUTIONS OVER THE
PAST 2 TO 3 RUN. SO THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL.

UPPER AIR...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL STEER MOST OF THE
STORM COMING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
AN INTENSE STORM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR
MONDAY EVENING, THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR MONDAY.

GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WEAKEN AS THE LOW CENTER NEARS THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WILL THIS STORM WILL FALL OVER
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE ADJACENT COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SMALLER AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEST DOMAIN...
A MODERATE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND DISSIPATE NEAR PORT HEIDEN MONDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATED THE BERING TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 130, 132, 175, 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 06