Gale Warning 1023, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM MODEL HAS INITIALIZED POORLY THIS MORNING AND IS OUT OF STEP
WITH THE GFS AND THE UKMET MODELS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS HAS
GOOD INITIALIZATION AND BEEN GIVING A CONSISTANT SOLUTIONS OVER THE
PAST 2 TO 3 RUN. SO THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL.

UPPER AIR...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL STEER MOST OF THE
STORM COMING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
AN INTENSE STORM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR
MONDAY EVENING, THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR MONDAY.

GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WEAKEN AS THE LOW CENTER NEARS THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WILL THIS STORM WILL FALL OVER
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE ADJACENT COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SMALLER AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEST DOMAIN...
A MODERATE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND DISSIPATE NEAR PORT HEIDEN MONDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATED THE BERING TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 130, 132, 175, 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 06