Storm Warning 180, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 260623 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1020 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

UPDATED ZONE 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR CORDOVA WILL DRIFT TO 260 NM WEST OF SITKA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 1019 MB.
$$

PKZ120-261400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-261400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-261400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30 KT
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-261400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1020 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EAST OF BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-261400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-261400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 17
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-261400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-261400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SEEN CLEARLY ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING
JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
WRAP AROUND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS ITS FRONT MOVED INLAND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THE
VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PWS LOW IS CLEARLY SEEN AS WELL. THE JET STREAM
IS SEEN STRETCHING BELOW THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN ALONG 40N THEN TURNING
NORTHEAST AT 170W AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. COLD AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE PWS LOW INTO THE BERING AND A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST
IS BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS.

MODEL AGREEMENT WAS MUCH BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER GFS HAD
THE PWS LOW 4 MB TOO WEAK AND THE NAM HAD IT 4 MB TOO STRONG. UKMET
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

EAST...THE PWS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY EAST OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND UP INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PRESSES EAST AND NUDGES THE TROUGH TOWARD CANADA...A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE MAINLAND AND CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP MOST
PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST
OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT...TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

WEST...SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WILL DECREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE PWS LOW WEAKENS AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST.
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. THREE LOWS
STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF EASTERN RUSSIA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHAIN AND THE
BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL SEE
SHOWERS FROM THESE SYSTEMS STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOWS PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD SEE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER LOW
NORTH OF CANADA BUILDS DOWN OVER EASTERN ALASKA BRINGING POLAR AIR
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 121 125 130 132 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR OCT 06