Storm Warning 179, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 251439 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

UPDATED AREAS 125 138 AND 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN TO 1010 MB BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-260200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. W OF CAPE CLEARE...NW WIND 40 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-260200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-260200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
640 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER GUSTS
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-260200-
PASSAGE CANAL
540 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-260200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
540 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-260200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-260200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
640 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-260200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-260200-
KACHEMAK BAY
640 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS. SEAS 6 FT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 250923 AAE
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
120 PM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

UPDATED ZONES 129 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB LOW 175 NM EAST OF KODIAK TO MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CORDOVA LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE INLAND WED. A 983 MB LOW 75 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HOMER WILL MOVE TO 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF CORDOVA WED
AFTERNOON AT 984 MB. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB 75 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CORDOVA BY THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-251400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1120 PM ADT TUE OCT 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-251400-
RESURRECTION BAY
930 PM ADT TUE OCT 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-251400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
930 PM ADT TUE OCT 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS
OUT OF CHANNELED AREAS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-251400-
PASSAGE CANAL
120 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT . SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT DECREASING TO 2 FT.


$$

PKZ130-251400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
120 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...FLAT ISLAND AND WEST...W WIND 20 KT. EAST OF FLAT
ISLAND...NW WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT EARLY MORNING. SEAS 
19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-251400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1120 PM ADT TUE OCT 24 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
65 KT IN THE EVENING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-251400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
930 PM ADT TUE OCT 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-251400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-251400-
KACHEMAK BAY
930 PM ADT TUE OCT 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED OCT 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SEEN CLEARLY ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING
JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
WRAP AROUND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS ITS FRONT MOVED INLAND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THE
VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PWS LOW IS CLEARLY SEEN AS WELL. THE JET STREAM
IS SEEN STRETCHING BELOW THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN ALONG 40N THEN TURNING
NORTHEAST AT 170W AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. COLD AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE PWS LOW INTO THE BERING AND A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST
IS BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS.

MODEL AGREEMENT WAS MUCH BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER GFS HAD
THE PWS LOW 4 MB TOO WEAK AND THE NAM HAD IT 4 MB TOO STRONG. UKMET
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

EAST...THE PWS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY EAST OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND UP INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PRESSES EAST AND NUDGES THE TROUGH TOWARD CANADA...A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE MAINLAND AND CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP MOST
PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST
OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT...TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

WEST...SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WILL DECREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE PWS LOW WEAKENS AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST.
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. THREE LOWS
STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF EASTERN RUSSIA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHAIN AND THE
BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL SEE
SHOWERS FROM THESE SYSTEMS STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOWS PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD SEE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER LOW
NORTH OF CANADA BUILDS DOWN OVER EASTERN ALASKA BRINGING POLAR AIR
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 121 125 130 132 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR OCT 06