Storm Warning 170, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 152352
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 962 MB 100 NM WEST OF ST PAUL WILL MOVE TO NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND
AT 968 MB SUN NIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. 
A 970 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE 
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ155-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-161400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-161400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.   

$$

PKZ170-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-161400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT SAINT MATTHEW EAST. NW WIND 20 KT SAINT
MATTHEW WEST. SEAS 18 FT...HIGHEST SAINT MATTHEW EAST. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-161400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS IN THE BERING SEA YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE STATE TODAY.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS A CLOSED LOW CENTER LIES OVER THE BERING WITH A STRONG
RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OVER THE MAIN PORTION OF THE STATE.  THIS
PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE JET BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN
NATURE...WHICH MEANS THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD AS WELL.  FOR NOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS MOVING ON THE
WEST COAST YESTERDAY HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
TODAY.  IT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER AS THE MAIN LOW HAS
LOST MOST OF ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THERE IS LITTLE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION TO FUEL THE SYSTEM.  THIS MEANS THAT THE STRONG WINDS SEEN
OUT WEST YESTERDAY WILL NOT MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE ZONE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CHANNELED AREAS LIKE THE
TURNAGAIN ARM.  AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THE SYSTEM HAS LOST A LOT OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT HAD YESTERDAY AS WELL.  RAIN WILL STILL
FALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SMALL.
BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE AREA IS STILL
PRETTY UNSTABLE.

OUT WEST...AS MENTIONED THE WINDS HAVE SLACKED OFF SINCE YESTERDAY
BUT ARE STILL FAIRLY GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW CENTER IS
STILL PRETTY TIGHT.  WINDS IN THE ALEUTIANS WILL FINALLY DIE OFF
TOMORROW MORNING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM
SOULIK TO APPROACH FROM JAPAN IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE STORM IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE ALEUTIANS BUT WINDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THAT AFTERNOON. ON THE MAINLAND
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY WITH MORE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY IN THE KUSKOWKIM DELTA NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW.

IN THE EAST...RAIN FROM THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR AS CORDOVA BY
LATE TONIGHT.  SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TURNAGAIN
ARM AND CAUSE DOWNSLOPING IN THE ANCHORAGE REGION...BUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE WINDS ALOFT WILL LIGHTEN UP AND RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO
ANCHORAGE AS WELL.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TAKEN AN INTERESTING TURN
FROM LAST NIGHT.  IN THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS ALL THE MODELS HAVE
VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND INITIALIZED VERY WELL WHEN COMPARED TO
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE.  AFTER THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL
VARIABLE ON THE REMNANTS OF THE TYPHOON COMING UP FROM JAPAN...BUT
THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PAST FEW RUNS
WHICH INSPIRES CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION.  ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS
THAT THE ECMWF HAS ADJUSTED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION...MAKING THE UKMET THE OUTLIER.  IN SUMMARY...THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THE BEST AND IS NOW THE MODEL OF
CHOICE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 155 180 170 171 172 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF OCT 06