Small Craft Advisory 939, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 152309
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
MON. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUE. 

$$

PKZ120-161400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-161400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-161400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT OCT 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...THREE WEATHER FEATURES ARE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN
SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY.

THE FIRST ONE IS A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS NOT
EFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL A LOT EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
PASSES AND CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. ENHANCING THIS
IS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

THIS RIDGE IS THE REASON MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA EAST OF THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. KEEPING IT FROM BEING
COMPLETELY SUNNY IS AN AREA OF CIRRUS PROPAGATING OVER THIS RIDGE.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF FOG REMAINS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THE BIG WEATHER SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS OUT IN THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TODAY. A 960 MB LOW IN THE VICINITY OF ADAK IS BRINGING LOTS OF RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS PROMPTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COAST AROUND KUSKOKWIM BAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THEN CENTRAL BERING SEA AND
THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY. THIS STORM LOOKS
MORE LIKE A FALL STROM THAN SOME OF THE PREVIOUS ONES WITH COLD AIR
IN EASTERN RUSSIA BEING ENTRAINED INTO THIS STROM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
WINDS ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM A BIT STRONGER DUE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION.
THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BERING
SEA COAST...MAINLY IN THE AREA OF KUSKOKWIM BAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT STORM SURGE BUT FORTUNATELY THE LARGEST PART OF THE SURGE
SHOULD OCCUR AT LOW TIDES AND THE LOWER OF THE DAYS TWO HIGH TIDES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191.
         COASTAL FLOOD WATCH 155.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 179 180.
         STORM 165 170 171 172 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 06