Storm Warning 165, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 122256
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRI.
A 987 MB LOW 400 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 225 NM WEST OF
GAMBELL FRI AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 993 MB IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. A 974
MB LOW WILL MOVE WITHIN 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK LATE FRI NIGHT THEN
DEEPEN TO 962 MB SAT AFTERNOON NEAR ADAK.
$$

PKZ150-131400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-131400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-131400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-131400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-131400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-131400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.

.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-131400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-131400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-131400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-131400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-131400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-131400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
137 PM ADT WED OCT 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS/NAM IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMNT WITH UPPER TROF NOW
OVER WRN ALASKA. A PORTION OF THE FEATURE LIFTS ENE TO THE BOARDER
NEXT 18-24 HRS WHILE A WEAK TROF AXIS STAYS BEHIND ALONG 160W.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A SCATTERED SHOWER AND VARIABLY CLOUDY
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AREAS FOR THE NEXT DAY.

GFS UKMET AGREE ON NEXT LOW SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ERN ALUTNS NEAR 45N
BOTH HAVE BEEN STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTANT THAN NAM. THIS STORM TO
MOVE NE BRINGING RAIN AND POSSIBLE MIN GALES TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO KODIAK ISLAND THU WITH THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE ISLAND SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW
DRIFT SE ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR
DIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE 1ST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MAYBE LONGER.

SERIES OF LOWS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL BERING WILL
GRAZE THE KUSKO DELTA COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND FOR MORE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RAIN AND WIND CONDITION WILL
EXTEND OUT TO THE PRIBILOFS AND ALEUTIANS AS WELL. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SAT WITH STORMS AND
GALES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY..CORDOVA AND SMALL
STREAMS OF SOUTHEAST ZONE 141
MARINE...GALE AREAS 132..150..155..175..176..185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PERCY OCT 06