Storm Warning 146, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 011132
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 989 MB LOW OVER SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT
PAUL SUN AFTERNOON AT 994 MB REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE
DISSIPATING MON AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
NEWENHAM WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE NEAR TOGIAK SUN NIGHT. A 1000
MB LOW 260 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL TRACK TO 80 NORTHEAST OF
SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON THEN TO 50 NM EAST OF ATKA 995 MB MON AFTERNOON.
A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA MON MORNING AT
991 MB THEN TO 80 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM AT 985 MB TUE MORNING. 
$$

PKZ150-020200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST DIMINISHING IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
105 PM ADT SAT SEP 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

.ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE PRIBILOFS AND THEN SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN COLD BAY AND DUTCH HARBOR. GALE FORCE WINDS NOTED ALONG
THIS FRONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE BERING LOW.
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO MIX DOWN
HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS
PRODUCING NEAR STORM FORCE WESTERLY GUSTS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAS PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES SUCH AS SEWARD AND WHITTIER HAVE
BEGUN TO DECREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
BETWEEN AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND DROPPED DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN THIS MORNING GENERATING SOME SNOW ALONG THE TOK CUT-OFF.
SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW HAS
SINCE LIGHTENED UP AND SHOULD COMPLETELY END BY MID AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORT-WAVE SINKS SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

.MODAL ANALYSIS...ALL MODELS INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES AND SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 24 HOURS. MODELS
THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS HEAD FURTHER OUT IN TIME. PREFER THE
GFS/UKMET SOLUTION WITH EVOLUTION OF LOWS OVER THE EASTERN BERING
ON SUNDAY. UPPER CENTER WILL REPOSITION ITSELF OVER STRONG SHORT-WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG ALEUTIANS. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A NEW SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE OLD LOW FILLS
BACK OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD PREFER
GFS SOLUTION WITH LOWS ORIGINATING OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA
AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. DPROG/DT SHOWS GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH TRACK OF DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SO WILL MAKE THE JUMP TO THE NEW SOLUTION.

.FORECASTS...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP
SYSTEMS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM BERING SEA LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN BERING THIS
EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AND MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY. AS NEW SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF COLD BAY AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL TIGHTEN
SO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE USUAL PLACES. OF
BIGGEST CONCERN ARE THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF
BERING SEA LOW COMPLEX. SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WINDSPEEDS
ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL
FORECAST STRONGER WINDS THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS FOR THESE AREAS
- EXPECT STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 KT WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS
THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AS HEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY THE FLOW. THIS WILL PICK UP AND DEVELOP A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE PATTERN EVEN MORE. WITH SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
LOW PACIFIC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY. THE END RESULT IS A CONTINUED WET
PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE BERING SEA WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SO THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 172.
         GALE WARNING 150 155 165 171 175.

SEB SEP 06