Gale Warning 711, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI SEP 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING WEAK A MARITIME RIDGE TO SET UP
TEMPORARILY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.  A DEEPENING LOW 15O MILES
NORTH OF SHEMYA FOLLOWS THE RIDGE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ATTM...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING LOW AND A WEAK BUILDING
RIDGE.  SNOW LEVELS DECREASED TO 2000FT SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE
CHUGACH FRONT RANGE WHILE MEASURABLE SNOW REPORTS HAVE COME IN FROM
CANTWELL AND SHEEP MOUNTAIN.  OUT WEST THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST WITH FOG REPORTED OVER MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY.

SHORT TERM...WITH THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING INLAND OVER CORDOVA
TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW IN THESE AREAS.  GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PASSES.
OTHERWISE TOMORROW LOOKING LIKE A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA THRU MIDWEEK WITH
LOWS CYCLING THROUGH ITS BASE CONTINUING THE TREND OF A WET PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH LOW TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS...EXPECTING STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CHAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AGREE  WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW ENTERING BRISTOL BAY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE LOW CENTER STAYS OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...THE GFS HAS THIS LOW MOVING OUT OF BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 130KT JET STREAK SOUTH OF THE AKPENN
ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.  THE LOW THEN
TRACKS WEST OF COOK INLET KEEPING COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  YET ANOTHER BERING SEA LOW JUMPS INTO THE GULF
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INSURING THE WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN
HOLDS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAY 3 AND 4..NONE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 130 140 141 170 171 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...

SDM SEP 06