Storm Warning 120, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 152257
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW 350 NM NORTH OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 150 NM WEST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS 990 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-161400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-161400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ170-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-161400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-161400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 15 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN MAY 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS BUT THE
ETA MODEL APPEARS TO HANDLE MESO-SCALE FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN
DOMAIN BETTER. THE ETA MODEL APPEAR TO HANDLE THE EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BETTER.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL FILL AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA BUILDS INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN.
THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT
WEST AND WILL MERGE WITH A RIDGE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE TANANA
VALLEY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS WILL FORM ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND AFFECT THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SPREAD WEST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH
TONIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND THE
SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY MONDAY.

WEST DOMAIN.
THE WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF
BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A STRONG LOW NEAR THE TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 176.
         GALE 172, 175, 179, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAY 06