Small Craft Advisory 449, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN MAY 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS BUT THE
ETA MODEL APPEARS TO HANDLE MESO-SCALE FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN
DOMAIN BETTER. THE ETA MODEL APPEAR TO HANDLE THE EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BETTER.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL FILL AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA BUILDS INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN.
THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT
WEST AND WILL MERGE WITH A RIDGE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE TANANA
VALLEY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS WILL FORM ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND AFFECT THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SPREAD WEST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH
TONIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND THE
SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY MONDAY.

WEST DOMAIN.
THE WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF
BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A STRONG LOW NEAR THE TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 176.
         GALE 172, 175, 179, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAY 06