Snow Advisory 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE DEC 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
NAM IS NOT FAR OFF BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING IN ONSHORE.  THE GFS ALSO
INITIALIZED BETTER.  SO THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST.

CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION IS CUTTING OFF IN MOST AREAS AS THE OLD
LOW PUSHES NORTH AND DISSIPATES. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN RELATIVELY UNCHANGING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
AND A WEAK RIDGE OF CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AND INTO CANADA. AS A
RESULT ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER
THE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. ALSO SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE MAINLAND THIS WEEK.

IN THE EAST THE STORM NOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL ENTER THE
GULF LATE TODAY. GALE AND STORM FORCE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS IT
HEADS TOWARD WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA BY LATE TONIGHT.

OUT WEST A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA
BY TONIGHT FOR AND THE FEW DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132.
         GALE  125 138 140 150 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 06