Gale Warning 1026, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
315 PM AST MON DEC 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION ON THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF LATE TUESDAY AND IT MAY TAKE ONE OR TWO
MORE RUNS BEFORE THE MODELS ZERO IN ON A SOLUTIONS. AT THE MOMENT
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS NOT VERY HIGH.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER PRINCE WILLIAM IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
INLAND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WEAKEN. THE MOST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WHILE LESSER AMOUNTS FALL OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE
AND MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS.

UPPER AIR...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE
STORM FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR TUESDAY.

AT SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
THE LOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THE SNOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

AN AREA OF SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT.

THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF LATE TUESDAY. GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE NEW STORM.

WEST DOMAIN...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL FILL OVER THE
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 140 141 150 172 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 06