Small Craft Advisory 99, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON JAN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

HEMISPHERIC PATTERN MAKING SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE COMING WEEK.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH ANCHORED OVER EUROPE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSOLIDATION OF THE DOMINANT LOW OVER
ALASKA WITH THE HIGH LATITUDE HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND THE MINOR UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN ASIA WILL CONTINUE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
REESTABLISHING NEAR THE DATELINE LATE IN THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER
LOW IS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP.

THE SCREAMING MESSAGE IS THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS KEPT
THE FORECAST AREA BELOW NORMAL WILL RELAX...THE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST MAINLAND AREAS AND THE BERING SEA WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. ICE EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH TOWARDS SAINT PAUL ABOUT A MONTH AHEAD OF NORMAL. COLD UNSTABLE
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FORSEEABLE
FUTURE.

IN THE SHORT TERM LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENING BUT CONTINUING
TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW EAST OF A TURNAGAIN ARM TO PALMER LINE. SNOW
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE. NEXT SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEST WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BERING SEA AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 130 150 165 179 410.
         GALE WARNING 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CAS JAN 06