Small Craft Advisory 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE JAN 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MAJOR FEATURES OF NOTE TODAY ARE A 970 MB SURFACE LOW SPINNING IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS KODIAK ISLAND. THE REST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS COLD AND DRY WHILE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...
PRIBILOFS...AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

LOOK FOR THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TO UNDERGO A REORIENTATION THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A VERY COLD UPPER LOW THAT WILL DROP INTO
WESTERN ALASKA FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL
THEN ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
YUKON TERRITORY. WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BERING
SEA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. IN SPITE OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL NOT WARM BY TOO
MUCH IN THE MID WEEK DUE TO THE LOW HEIGHTS...INDICATIVE OF COLD
AIR...THAT REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR YAKUTAT WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE BERING SEA UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY FLOW AS A VORTMAX AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA THURSDAY. A MAJOR
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH THAN SYSTEMS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  STAY TUNED
FOR MORE DETAILS...

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 130
WOOD / BROWN