Small Craft Advisory 938, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
615 AM ADT SAT OCT 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND NORTHERN
GULF PROVIDING WELCOME BREAK FROM ROUGH FALL WEATHER. MODELS TRENDING
THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT MORE TRANSIENT WITH EACH RUN LEADING TO A MORE
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED GFS INTRODUCES A LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN
GULF AT 78 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST
OVER JUNEAUS AOR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW PAST MONDAY UNTIL MODELS CAN
GET A BETTER READ ON THIS NEW FEATURE.

UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS NOW EXTENDING FROM AKPEN TO DEADHORSE ON
THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST. THE RIDGE NEVER ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AS MODELS INDICATED EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. INSTEAD...UPPER TROF IS DIGGING OVER THE BERING SEA
ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
SNEAK ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES INTERRUPTING A CLOUDLESS
SKY TODAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVING ANCHORAGE AND SURROUNDING AREAS
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. COPPER RIVER BASIN COOLING
OFF INTO THE TEENS IS PRODUCING A LATE FALL LIKE THERMAL GRADIENT
LEADING TO SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH MOUNTAIN PASSES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THERMAL
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...UPPER RIDGE SLIDING
EAST WILL ALLOW SYSTEMS...OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF SYSTEMS...TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL STARTING EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS WHERE NAM KEEPS SOUTHCENTRAL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA AND
THE GFS BRINGS A 985 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN
SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. AGAIN CONFIDENCE DECREASES
DRAMATICALLY PAST DAY 3 UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
DEVELOPING STORM.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW IS
KEEPING THIS HIGH PRESSURE DIRTY AS MANY AREAS SEEING LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG. AS THE OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG BERING SEA LOW ROTATES
THROUGH...THIS WILL SET UP SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING AND POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...GFS SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW 270 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DROPPED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN
THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AND REACH 75 MPH PLUS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA LEADING TO AN
ACTIVE PATTERN OF RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOWS AND SUBSEQUENT STORMY
WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191
         COASTAL FLOOD WATCH 155
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 172 175
         STORMS 165 170 171 176
         GALES 155 160 179 180 185
FIRE...NONE

AB OCT 06