Gale Warning 777, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION
EXTENDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL DROP SOUTH AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SAT. THIS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AIDED BY A 150 KT JET MAX. DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...THIS STRONG UPPER FEATURE WILL PUSH THE MUCH ANTICIPATED RIDGE
AXIS FARTHER EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS ALONG
WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION SAT AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS TEH CHAIN
NEAR ADAK SAT MORNING AS IT DEEPENS TO AROUND 960 MB. THIS STORM
SHOULD HVE VERY STRONG WINDS AND WE HAVE UPPED THE WIND WATCHES FOR
ZONES 187 AND 191 TO WARNINGS. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WATCH FOR
ZONE 185 SINCE THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPEED OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM AND THEREFORE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191  HIGH WIND WATCH 185.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 172 175.
         STORMS 170 176.
         GALES 155 165 171 179 180 185.

SAM OCT 06