Small Craft Advisory 936, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
600 AM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TWO MAJOR HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...NICE WEATHER SETTLING
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND A LARGE STORM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.
HAVE CONTINUED FOLLOWING THE GFS AS IT IS THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL
AND SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING.

UPPER LEVELS...UPPER TROF AXIS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE ON ITS HEALS. RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MOST OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY WITH NEW ANCHOR
LOW NOW SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG UPPER
LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AIDED BY A 150 KT
JET MAX. DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...THIS STRONG UPPER FEATURE
WILL PUSH THE MUCH ANTICIPATED RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...995 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...APPEARS TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPED AND IS HEADING TOWARD
YAKUTAT THIS MORNING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
OFF SHORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KODIAK ISLAND. ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INVADING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MARCH EAST AND DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER OUR EASTERN DOMAIN RESULTING IN A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND.
THE ONLY CONCERN WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE IF IT WILL USHER IN SOME
MARINE STRATUS TO THE COASTAL AREAS. IF EARLY THIS MORNING IS ANY
PRECURSOR...WE WILL BE EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THEN SLIPS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...INTERIOR WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE
ENJOYING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WHERE STRATUS STILL REMAINS BUT WILL LIKELY BE BURNED OFF LATE THIS
MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM
DELTA THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
SATURDAY GIVING THE AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. COASTAL AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE BERING
SEA...COULD SEE COASTAL FLOODING WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING
SUNDAY THEN LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT BRINGS STORM AND EVEN HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
HAS TRENDED THE STORM STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SO THINKING MODELS STILL
GETTING A GRASP ON THE DETAILS. EVEN SO ANTICIPATING IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LOW. HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE WATCHES ISSUED YESTERDAY AND ADD THE WESTERN PART OF
ZONE 185.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 185 187 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 175
         STORMS 172 176
         GALES 132 150 165 170 171 179 180 185
FIRE...NONE

AB OCT 06