Gale Warning 775, NWS Anchorage, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFC 132304
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
THE 995 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 150 NM WEST OF
ANNETTE SAT AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA SUN. 

$$

PKZ120-141400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 13 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH INITIALIZING THE LOW JUST WEST OF
THE GULF THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOW IN THE BERING SEEMS TO BE
DEPICTED A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH BUT ON THE SAME TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WOULD BE TO EXPECT WINDS
TO BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD WITH THE GFS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE STRONG LOW MOVING TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS.

UPPER LEVELS...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA CONNECTED TO
CLOSE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. THIS TROUGH TO BE DRIVEN EAST AND INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE REPLACED BY A RIDGE
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BERING. A LARGE LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LOW. SOME UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR TO WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM
AND CREATE A NEW CENTER TO THE TROUGH OVER ADAK SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE MAINLAND. THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE MAINLAND AS THE LOW IN THE BERING ROTATES NORTH AND LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BERING SEA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A 995 MB LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK TO
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY...SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER TO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
AROUND THE LOW NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME RAIN AND WINDS WILL EFFECT THE WESTERN GULF
AND KODIAK AT TIMES AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH. THE CONSISTENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CREATE MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
AT TIMES THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CURRENTLY...SHOWERS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WANING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GULF. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLEARING
OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN ALASKA WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. A
995 MB LOW JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IN NORTHWESTERN
BERING SEA TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GOOD WINDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE BERING FRIDAY TO THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT. THE FRONT TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND SATURDAY THEN NORTH OVER THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN ALASKA.

BIG STORY IS THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR ADAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN TO 960 MB AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL CREATE SOME VERY STRONG
WINDS AROUND THE LOW. PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THE LOW TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING AROUND THE LOW. THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES ONTO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE BERING BEHIND THE LOW AS
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA. WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG IN THE BERING INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE INITIAL LOW AND
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE
INITIAL LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 135
         HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 187 AND 191
MARINE...STORM 176
         GALE 155 172 175 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN OCT 06