Small Craft Advisory 928, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE OCT 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED IN THE BERING SEA JUST
EAST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER
OVER ALASKA. A POWERFUL SOUTH TO NORTH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH
WINDS 150 TO 170 MPH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO
ANCHORAGE TO FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS
CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE UP COOK
INLET...BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. MANY
PLACES TOPPED 60 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 70
DEGREES. ANCHORAGE SET AN ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER WITH 64 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY. VERY HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM SEWARD TO VALDEZ TO CORDOVA...AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS
WORKING INTO THE AREA ALL THE WAY FROM HAWAII. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...WITH SCARY RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING A
FOOT IN SOME AREAS NEAR SEWARD AND CORDOVA AS OF EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. VALDEZ SET AN ALL TIME DAILY RAINFALL RECORD AS WELL. IN
CORDOVA...WINDS GUSTING TO 91 MPH ACCOMPANIED THE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE HAD
DECREASED TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE STILL QUITE BREEZY. WINDS ENDING UP PEAKING AROUND 80
MPH ON THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

.FORECAST...
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH MORE RAIN THE GULF COAST WILL
RECEIVE. EXPECT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY FOR VALDEZ AND CORDOVA...WHILE SEWARD HAS SEEN THE HEAVY
RAIN BEGIN TO WIND DOWN. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ALL
OF COOK INLET BY NOON...WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS BEHIND. BASICALLY
ALL OF ALASKA WILL UNDER THE COOLER AIRMASS WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY. THE AIRMASS IS AND WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO MIX IN OVER SOME AREAS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 2000 TO
3000 FEET EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC OCEAN...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL NOSE INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE FAR
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE TO
TAKE THIS LOW AND HAVE BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT. SOME MODELS AND SOME
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TAKING IT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE
THIS WEEK...WHILE OTHERS HAVE KEPT IT WELL SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. DO HAVE CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...IN HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNINGS 125 131 135. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS 155 AND
161.
MARINE...GALES 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 185 410.

FOISY OCT 06