Small Craft Advisory 926, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT MON OCT 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH HANDLING THE MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURE FIELDS. ALL NORTH AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES REMAINING. HAVE MOSTLY MOVED TO THE TIMING OF THE GFS.
HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED WINDS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT
GFS SOLUTION.

UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH ORIENTED FROM CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO 45N 160W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. CENTRAL LOW IN
THIS TROUGH OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND. STRONG JET NORTH SOUTH ALONG 155W
HITTING AKPEN AND KENAI PENINSULA. THE JET TO SWING EAST SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT MOVE TOO MUCH
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A RIDGE MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA AND ANOTHER LOW MOVES TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A LOW MOVES TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE BERING SEA WITH A TROUGH CARVING OUT IN THE WESTERN BERING
THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE MOVES OVER THE MAINLAND FRIDAY. THE LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN MOVES EAST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS IS CREATING A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED MAINLY DUE
TO TIMING OF SUPPORT ALOFT NOT EXACTLY MESHING WITH SURFACE
PARAMETERS. GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING LIFTS ABOVE 60N AT THIS
TIME...USUALLY MEANING A DECREASE IN WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM. WOULD
PROBABLY SEE A CONTINUANCE OF WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AS WELL. LOTS OF WIND BEHIND THE LOW AS WELL WITH GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION. PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL CAUSING SOME
MINOR FLOODING. BIG AREA OF FLOODING IN SEWARD AREA SINCE IT HAS BEEN
RAINING MODERATE TO HEAVY SINCE LAST NIGHT. JET MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW TO EAST OF CORDOVA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PRECIP
TO SHIFT HEAVIER OVER THE CORDOVA AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY AND MOVE
INLAND TESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN
TURNAGAIN ARM THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. WOULD ALSO ANTICIPATE MODERATE
WINDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA. TROUGH OF LOW TO PUSH
ACROSS THE MAINLAND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE BERING SEA BEHIND THIS
LOW ENDING PRECIPITATION. A NEW LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES TO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS TO HIT THE GULF COAST AND AKPEN. THE LOW
TRACKS TO THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MOVES SLOWLY IN THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA FRIDAY AND
INTO THE ARCTIC SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE BERING SEA
WITH THIS LOW AND INLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE BERING MOVES
OVER THE MAINLAND AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...ZONES 101 125
         FLOOD WARNING ZONE 125
         FLOOD WATCH ZONE 131
         SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY...ZONES 131 135 145
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 155 170
         GALE 121 125 129 138 140 141 150 160 165 171 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN OCT 06