Small Craft Advisory 910, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FRONT CAME ONSHORE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...ONLY SHOWERS REMAIN AND THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF
YESTERDAY HAVE BEGAN TO DIMINISH. A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING
NORTH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER BRISTOL BAY
AND AKPEN AREA. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW THAT MOVED ONSHORE NEAR BETHEL YESTERDAY REMAIN OVER THE BERING
AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

OVERALL THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW GFS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY. THE MODELS
DIVERGE DRASTICALLY ON A LOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
DUE TO ARRIVE IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY BECAUSE OF ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE DOMAIN EXTENT OF THE MODELS. WILL MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH.

EAST...A SECONDARY LOW FROM YESTERDAYS BERING LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
BRISTOL BAY TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE GAP WINDS AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL PUSH A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS
THE AKPEN AND THE GULF TODAY TO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
AGAIN...MAINLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS TO BE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EAST ALONG THE COASTS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH TO LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY AND TO JUST
ISOLATED FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS COLD
AIR FROM THE NORTH IS PUSHED DOWN BY THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA. LOOK FOR SNOW LEVELS TO BE DOWN TO ABOUT 2000 FT.

WEST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING TOMORROW AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER THE MAINLAND. GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS AND GAP WINDS OVER LAND SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW. A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY WILL CLEAR OUT CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY AND TOMORROW...HOWEVER A LOW MOVING EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL BE BRINGING RAIN TO THE CHAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TOMORROW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR OCT 06