Gale Warning 752, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050000
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 MB LOW MOVES TO NEAR SEWARD TONIGHT THEN INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. A 989 MB LOW MOVES TO 70 NM EAST OF SAND POINT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-051400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCAL
GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-051400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...S WIND 35 KT
DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT DIMINISHING TO 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 4 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE OCT 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS/UMKET SOLUTIONS INITIALIZED BEST AND FORECAST
TRENDS APPEAR MOST REASONABLE.

.SYNOPSIS...980 MB LOW CENTER OVER KUSKOKWIM BAY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
INLAND NEAR BETHEL TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING E-SE TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF
MOVES N AND E TO OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST GULF TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
988 MB CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND MOVES
TO SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM BAY AT 988 MB WED MORNING. CENTER THEN WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM WED AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN
INTERIOR THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH THU.

.EAST...EAST/WEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND WARNING CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND CORDOVA ZONE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH TONIGHT. GAP WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN WED AS SECONDARY
LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY. BRISK SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COPPER RIVER
WILL SLACKEN SOME TONIGHT...BUT PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GULF SHOULD
KEEP GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THU.
RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BREAK UP INTO SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH
UNSTABLE AIR ON BACKSIDE OF FRONT.

.WEST...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY
TO RAIN AND 850/700MB FLOWS SHIFT S-SW TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
OVER SW AK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER
THE REGION. MARGINAL STORM SURGE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL
BAY TONIGHT AS LOW NEAR KUSKOKWIM BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND LONG FETCH
W-SW WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HIGH TIDES IN BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT
ARE AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG WIND HEADLINES LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE AK PEN THROUGH WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 101 AND 135.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 06