Small Craft Advisory 89, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT JAN 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA SHOWS THREE PRIMARY SYSTEMS OF
NOTE THIS MORNING. IN THE EAST...A 986 MB LOW IS SPINNING IN THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WITH SNOW BEING
INDICATED BY RADAR ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BAND MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER DELTA...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THE CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP BY SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE COLD AIR WRAPPING
BACK INTO THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET OVER SOUTHWEST INTERIOR ALASKA
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND A DEEPLY ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. A FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING FROM A LOW SOUTH OF ADAK IS
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS. FINALLY...A
THIRD LOW IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AND IS DECAYING AS IT
GRADUALLY MOVES WEST AND OUT OF THE PICTURE.

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH A JET STREAM THAT IS PROGGED
TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF 50N...THE PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT WITH THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUING TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN KENAI WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT THE SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WHILE WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH CLOUD COVER BEING THE PRIMARY MITIGATING
FACTOR IN KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH THE JET STREAM BEING LOCATED SO FAR SOUTH...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS NEAR THE ALEUTIANS ARE PROGGED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CHAIN
WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONTAL BANDS WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDES OF THE LOWS AS THEY MOVE
ALONG THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
BERING SEA THROUGH WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE
BERING FROM THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA UPPER LOW.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FINALLY
DISSIPATES AND AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE BERING SEA BY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE AKPEN AND IN TURN CAUSING A WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 121 129 150 155 172 175 176.

WOOD / BROWN