Small Craft Advisory 86, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI JAN 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE COOK INLET WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WILL
DRIFT BACK TO TOWARD BRISTOL BAY MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE WEST TOWARD
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY. AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND
WILL BECOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FEET OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL CREATE OVER-RUNNING SNOW CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. DUE TO
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SNOW TO WATER RATIO MAY BE AS HIGH
AS 40 TO 1.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF GAPS IN
THE TERRAIN FROM THE COPPER RIVER DELTA TO CHIGNIK. THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY.

THE SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD BE CLEARING BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

STORMS OUT WEST WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE BERING SEA. STRONG EAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECAST
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 06