Small Craft Advisory 883, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS HAS INITIALIZED BETTER AND HAS A BETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE NAM MODEL. THE NEW GFS MODEL MOVES THE LOW SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS A LITTLE FASTER THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY
MORNING, WHICH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS,
SO IT HAS NOT QUITE SETTLED ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION.

BOTH MODEL HANDLE THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ABOUT THE SAME.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AT NOON INDICATED HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY,
WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND IS NEAR CORDOVA.

EAST DOMAIN...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE WEAKENING FRONT NORTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES IT
OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER THOUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SWING NORTHEAST TO LIE ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK EASTWARD SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT JUST EAST OF COLD BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TO NEAR KING SALMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY.

THE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH LATE
WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL END BY THIS EVENING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132, 150, 155, 172, 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 06