Gale Warning 702, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 271208
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTH OF SAND
POINT AND WEAKEN TO 998 MB BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST
AND DISSIPATE BY THU AFTERNOON. THU NIGHT A 988 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
400 NM WEST OF SHEMYA. 
$$

PKZ150-280200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-280200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED SEP 27 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS HAS INITIALIZED BETTER AND HAS A BETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE NAM MODEL. THE NEW GFS MODEL MOVES THE LOW SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS A LITTLE FASTER THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY
MORNING, WHICH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS,
SO IT HAS NOT QUITE SETTLED ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION.

BOTH MODEL HANDLE THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ABOUT THE SAME.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AT NOON INDICATED HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY,
WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND IS NEAR CORDOVA.

EAST DOMAIN...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE WEAKENING FRONT NORTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES IT
OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER THOUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SWING NORTHEAST TO LIE ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK EASTWARD SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT JUST EAST OF COLD BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TO NEAR KING SALMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY.

THE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH LATE
WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL END BY THIS EVENING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132, 150, 155, 172, 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 06