Small Craft Advisory 880, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWN VERY CLEARLY ON IR SATELLITE...A STRONG LOW WELL SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND IS MOVING UP THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. IT HAS
DEVELOPED A TRIPLE POINT LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WITH A
VIGOROUS FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS FRONT
HAS ALREADY BROUGHT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN COASTAL WATERS JUST
OUTSIDE OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY
AT TIMES ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL COASTS AND OVER TO THE
AKPEN. ALSO SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IS THE EXTRA TROPICAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT STORM FORCE
WINDS TO THAT END OF THE CHAIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL START MAKING ITS
WAY SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WAS NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE WRF INITIALIZATION OR SOLUTION THEREFORE
RELIED ON THE GFS RUN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WRF CONTINUES TO
PLACE THE GULF LOW TOO FAR TO THE EAST AND DO NOT WANT TO USE IT ON
THE LOW OUT WEST SINCE IT IS ON ITS BORDER OF ITS DOMAIN.

SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS HAD PICKED UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO SEE THAT
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD NOT DEPICTED THE LOW STRONG ENOUGH. DECIDED A
HIGH WIND WARNING WAS NEEDED FOR CHANNELED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE. EXPECT
RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESENT LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW OUT WEST MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY TODAY...MOSTLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN
SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWEST
FROM THE GULF LOW TODAY THEN MORE ON THE WAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FROM THE LOW NOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. ANY GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ONLY TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEW SYSTEM.

ALEUTIANS...HIGH WIND WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN END
OF THE CHAIN WITH STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT RAIN AND
GALES TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE CHAIN AS THE LOW NEARS THE AKPEN
WEDNESDAY. A VERY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 135 191
MARINE...STORM 120 175 176
      ...GALE 125 130 132 138 150 155 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR SEP 06