Gale Warning 699, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 261855 AAC
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1100 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

UPDATED ZONE 120

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK TUE
AFTERNOON AT 998 MB THEN TO 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD AT 999 MB
BEFORE MOVING INLAND EARLY WED MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WED AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OUTSIDE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-270200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1100 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING
SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-270200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING
BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
420 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
850 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 262359
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 998 MB AS IT MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OUTSIDE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-271400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. NORTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE...E WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-271400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...E WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-271400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-271400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W WIND 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 20
KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-271400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT NORTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS TO 8 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-271400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE SEP 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWN VERY CLEARLY ON IR SATELLITE...A STRONG LOW WELL SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND IS MOVING UP THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. IT HAS
DEVELOPED A TRIPLE POINT LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WITH A
VIGOROUS FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS FRONT
HAS ALREADY BROUGHT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN COASTAL WATERS JUST
OUTSIDE OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY
AT TIMES ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL COASTS AND OVER TO THE
AKPEN. ALSO SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IS THE EXTRA TROPICAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT STORM FORCE
WINDS TO THAT END OF THE CHAIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL START MAKING ITS
WAY SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WAS NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE WRF INITIALIZATION OR SOLUTION THEREFORE
RELIED ON THE GFS RUN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WRF CONTINUES TO
PLACE THE GULF LOW TOO FAR TO THE EAST AND DO NOT WANT TO USE IT ON
THE LOW OUT WEST SINCE IT IS ON ITS BORDER OF ITS DOMAIN.

SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS HAD PICKED UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO SEE THAT
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD NOT DEPICTED THE LOW STRONG ENOUGH. DECIDED A
HIGH WIND WARNING WAS NEEDED FOR CHANNELED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE. EXPECT
RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESENT LOW
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW OUT WEST MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY TODAY...MOSTLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN
SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWEST
FROM THE GULF LOW TODAY THEN MORE ON THE WAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FROM THE LOW NOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. ANY GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ONLY TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE NEW SYSTEM.

ALEUTIANS...HIGH WIND WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN END
OF THE CHAIN WITH STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT RAIN AND
GALES TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE CHAIN AS THE LOW NEARS THE AKPEN
WEDNESDAY. A VERY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 135 191
MARINE...STORM 120 175 176
      ...GALE 125 130 132 138 150 155 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR SEP 06