Small Craft Advisory 855, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 192205 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

UPDATED ZONE 120

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST TO 100 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
$$

PKZ120-200200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
200 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200200-
RESURRECTION BAY
755 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200200-
PASSAGE CANAL
755 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
755 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW
WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
755 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
755 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
755 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200200-
KACHEMAK BAY
755 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 192330
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST + KODIAK ISLAND WATERS + 
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1002 MB NEAR YAKUTAT WED
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE INLAND WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
GULF WED WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THU. A 978 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO 250 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-201400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST
SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-201400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING. STRONGEST WIND OUT OF
EASTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-201400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-201400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW WIND
20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.

.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. STRONGEST WIND AND
HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH AND WEST OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE MAINLY SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE MAINLY SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
545 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 54
HOURS. AT 60 HOURS GFS INTRODUCES A 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND DEEPENS IT QUICKLY TO 975 MB 18 HOURS LATER. ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS
DEPICT THIS LOW...THE GFS IS THE LONE MODEL TO DEVELOP IT SO RAPIDLY
AND INTENSELY. THIS SYSTEM INTRODUCED SOME DIFFICULT DECISIONS FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST AS WHOLE SALE CHANGES COULD PROVE TO BE AN
OVERREACTION IF THE GFS FLIPS DURING THIS MORNINGS RUN. ON THE OTHER
HAND GIVEN THAT ALL THE MODELS INTRODUCE SOME SORT OF LOW DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME AND OUR RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THE EVENT...IT WOULD
ALMOST BE IRRESPONSIBLE TO NOT AT LEAST TREND THE FORECAST PACKAGE
TOWARD THIS NEW SOLUTION. SO...AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION AND
COORDINATION WITH JUNEAU DECIDED TO DO JUST THAT. THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM IN THE SHORT
TERM...THEN BLENDS IN THE NEW GFS SOLUTION WITH THE OLD DURING THE
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MEDIUM
TO LONG RANGE FORECAST AS THE MODELS TRY TO COME TO SOME CONSENSUS ON
THE DEVELOPING LOW.

SOUTHCENTRAL SURFACE...WILL FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. 990 MB LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER
SHELIKOF STRAIT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THIS
IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS AS THE CONSENSUS WAS TO TAKE
THE LOW NORTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY. THIS
DIFFERENCE WILL PROVE TO BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS IT
KEEPS RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST MID WEEK. UNTIL THEN...THE UPSLOPED
RANGES AND COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WESTERN KENAI...ANCHORAGE
BOWL...SUSITNA VALLEY EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY...AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL SEE VERY LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE IN
ABUNDANCE BUT DOWNSLOPED WINDS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
FROM FALLING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN UNCERTAINTY THURSDAY AS THE AFFECTS OF THE NEW SYSTEM COULD BE
APPROACHING THEN.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE SURFACE...A WET AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR
MOST EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM
THE LONE EXCEPTION. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALASKA KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY LENDS ITSELF TO LOW CLOUDS
AND MORNING FOG.

FURTHER WEST...CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE
MAIN LOW MOVES EAST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT A MUCH WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND DISRUPT THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH.

THANK YOU JUNEAU FOR THE COORDINATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB SEP 06