Small Craft Advisory 805, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...STILL PROBLEM INGESTING THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN INTO
AWIPS/GFE.

.EAST...OLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SERVE AS A PIVOT POINT FOR CENTERS
MOVING INTO THE GULF. DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 50N 147W AT 18Z MAKES
HEADWAY TO THE NORTH GULF WED. EXPECT WILL SEE STORM TO GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE GULF WITH APPROACH OF THIS CENTER. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT EAST AS IT BECOMES STACKED WITH UPPER
CENTER. CURRENT TRACK WITH THIS ONE SHOULD HOLD THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF. EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM EAST...MOST RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IS CONFINED TO THE COOK
INLET SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE WITH SOME
BREAKS CURRENTLY OVER COOK INLET/SUSTINA VALLEY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
EARLY EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX ACROSS THE CHUGACH. MAY SEE
SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS OVER COOK INLET AND SUSTINA/MAT REGIONS LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE ONSET OF INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WED.

.WEST...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON INOKE AS IT ENTERS THE BERING SEA. BITS OF
THE 12Z RUN THAT MADE IT INTO AWIPS INDICATE A MUCH FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK TO THE LOW CENTER. GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A LARGE
SPREAD IN MEMBERS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS INOKE HAS RECURVED AND IS MOVING
UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SWLY JET. ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON TRACK...IT IS FELT THAT THIS CENTER WILL
BE FAIRLY INTENSE WITH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE 960S AS IT GETS
INTO THE BERING SEA. WILL LEAN TOWARD OOZ GFS RUN WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS AND GIVE ANOTHER RUN TO SEE IF THE TRACK STABILIZES.

HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SW COAST WILL BE NEAR THE MAT MARK WED NIGHT.
MAY NEED TO GO WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR GENERAL STATEMENT ON BEACH
EROSION. WILL GET AFTERNOON STORM SURGE PREDICTIONS BEFORE FINALIZING
PLAN.

.SHORT TERM WEST...WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT SHOULD KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN OVER BRISTOL BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRATUS LIKELY
OVER THE DELTA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH SW FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...STORM 176.
         GALE 165, 170, 172, 175, 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 06