Gale Warning 638, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON SEP 4 2006

.DISCUSSION....

.UPPER AIR...RESIDENT CUT-OFF CENTER OVER THE GULF SHOULD HOLD STRONG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF RUSSIA
AND CENTER RACING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS SHOULD AMPLIFY BERING SEA
RIDGE AND KICK IT BRISTOL BAY BY EARLY THU. GULF CENTER IN TURN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL FINALLY BE PRIED LOOSE FROM THE GULF AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN CANADA. CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WED/THU WILL
REPLACE GULF CENTER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS ONE NOT LIKELY TO SETUP
HOUSE AS JET OVER POLE DISSOLVES AS WESTERLY JET SETS UP OVER THE
BERING SEA.

.EAST...LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL ROTATE AROUND STACKED CENTER
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AND SHOULD END UP NEAR THE KENAI PEN TONIGHT.
CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT TOWARD KODIAK AND DISSIPATE. EXPECT DESCENT
RAINS WITH THIS CENTER SPREADING TO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. NEXT CENTER TO AFFECT GULF WILL
MOVE AROUND BASE OF UPPER GULF TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN UNDER FAVORABLE
JET POSITION TUE. EXPECT CENTER TO BRING GALES AND RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED. CENTER EVENTUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE GULF
AS UPPER TROUGH CLEARS.

STRATUS AND FLOW EVIDENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY RAIN TONIGHT.

.WEST...STRATUS AND FOG EVIDENT AGAIN OVER COASTAL SW AK ZONES.
EXPECT REPEAT TONIGHT AS RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. MAY SEE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ZONE 161 AGAIN TODAY. MORNING SOUNDING
INDICATE TRIGGER TEMP OF 61 NEEDED TODAY SEEMS REASONABLE AND LI
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY WITH MAIN CHUNK OF ENERGY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE NOW COME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF HANDLING
OF FORMER TYPHOON IOKE AS IT GOES EXTRA-TROPICAL. GFS MODEL THOUGH
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRESSURE SOME. EXPECT IT IS NOT FULLY ACCOUNTING
FOR LATENT HEAT RELEASE...SO FORECAST PRESSURE LIKELY TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT FAIRLY GOOD BLOW AS IT IMPACTS THE
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS AND AK PEN WED/THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120. GALES 130 132 176. MANY UPCOMING IN THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 06