Small Craft Advisory 727, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS..WRF CONTINUES TO MOVE THE COLD FRONT TOO FAST ON 00Z
RUN..WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF UKMET AND GFS ON SYSTEM FLOW.

SUMMARY..A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TODAY WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF AK.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK TODAY. A RIDGE
OVER THE BERING WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW THAT
WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS SAT NIGHT. 850 MB CAA IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE
COOLER TEMPS MOVING INTO THE MAINLAND AOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AER..STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND COASTAL MARINES
WITH A TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH FROPA TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH FLOODING
A POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL STREAMS IN THE AK AND TALKEETNA RANGES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS SUCH AS COOK INLET IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER SAT NIGHT
COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT THIS TO BE MODERATED BY CLOUD
COVER.

ALU..FROPA CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE Y-K DELTA WITH RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WAKE OF FROPA AND POSSIBLY INLAND IF SUFFICIENT TEMP CONTRAST OCCURS.
STRATUS AND FOG STILL A FORECAST ISSUE ESPECIALLY FOR AIR TRAVEL. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES OUT EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN TO THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN
CHAIN THROUGH SUN MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 141 145.
MARINE...GALES 130 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW AUG 06