Gale Warning 574, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181620 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
814 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

THIS AMENDS COOK INLET

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$

PKZ120-190200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-190200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-190200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-190200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-190200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-190200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-190200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-190200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
814 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-190200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 190001
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. A 998 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-191400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. S WIND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT WEST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND. SEAS TO 9 FT...HIGHEST EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-191400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-191400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-191400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-191400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT...STRONGEST EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S WIND TO 40 KT THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-191400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS..WRF CONTINUES TO MOVE THE COLD FRONT TOO FAST ON 00Z
RUN..WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF UKMET AND GFS ON SYSTEM FLOW.

SUMMARY..A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TODAY WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF AK.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK TODAY. A RIDGE
OVER THE BERING WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW THAT
WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS SAT NIGHT. 850 MB CAA IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE
COOLER TEMPS MOVING INTO THE MAINLAND AOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AER..STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND COASTAL MARINES
WITH A TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH FROPA TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH FLOODING
A POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL STREAMS IN THE AK AND TALKEETNA RANGES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS SUCH AS COOK INLET IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER SAT NIGHT
COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT THIS TO BE MODERATED BY CLOUD
COVER.

ALU..FROPA CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE Y-K DELTA WITH RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WAKE OF FROPA AND POSSIBLY INLAND IF SUFFICIENT TEMP CONTRAST OCCURS.
STRATUS AND FOG STILL A FORECAST ISSUE ESPECIALLY FOR AIR TRAVEL. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES OUT EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN TO THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN
CHAIN THROUGH SUN MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 141 145.
MARINE...GALES 130 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW AUG 06