Small Craft Advisory 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST MON JAN 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL...CURRENTLY...A BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN/WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
EASTERN ALASKA. A STRONG JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF AND WILL WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT PUSHES TO THE
WEST COAST OF THE MAINLAND U.S. AND THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TO BUCKLE
JET OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE. IN RETURN...A TROUGH WILL
DIG NEAR 160W TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA COAST. THIS PATTERN TO REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. ONLY
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AND LOW THROUGH
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. AS THESE TWO FEATURES MOVE EAST...THE CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY. THIS MOVEMENT IS AIDED
BY A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW RIDING INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

SOUTH CENTRAL SURFACE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM KODIAK TO
KENAI. THIS WILL EXIT THE REGION A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING LEAVING
MOST PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS DUE TO THE
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS LOW TO WEAKEN TUESDAY. REMNANTS FROM
THE LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF BUILDS RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
WITH MOISTURE CIRCLING THE GULF AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS. GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE GULF.
STRONG JET TO ROUND THIS LOW WEDNESDAY AND DEVELOP A STRONG LOW TO
THE EAST WHICH WILL IMPINGE ON THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A FRONTAL WAVE
FROM THE DISSIPATING FIRST LOW NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A RESULT. THE FIRST LOW DISSIPATES AT THIS TIME AS THE LOW MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE PANHANDLE DOMINATES THE WEATHER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS LOW TO PUSH INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT LATE FRIDAY WITH LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE GULF. THE RIDGE IS A RESULT OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING TO THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE SURFACE...WEAKENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO WEAKEN AS WELL. SURFACE
REFLECTION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BECOME MINIMAL BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN THIS EVENING
AND TOMORROW...THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NEAR WEST ALEUTIAN
CHAIN WILL TIGHTEN AND CREATE GALE FORCE WINDS AND STRONG GUSTS
THROUGH GAPS IN TERRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL LESSEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. BY
TUESDAY EVENING...A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN
FROM A STRONG LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL BRING STORM
FORCE WINDS TO THE EXTREME WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BERING SEA. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SWINGS NORTH BECAUSE IT LOSES JET SUPPORT.
HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK ACROSS THE BERING SEA AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A JET MAX
MOVING UNDERNEATH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO DEVELOP A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECONDARY
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY WITH THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. GALE FORCE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND LOW
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ENCIRCLING THE PARENT LOW THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD. IN OTHER WORDS...UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185
         GALE 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JAN 06