Gale Warning 36, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 041226
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 984 MB LOW 550 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW AT 967 MB
1200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE NORTH TO 200 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA
AND WEAKEN TO 981 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT THIS MORNING DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS.  
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050036
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 750 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL DISSIPATE 650 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU MORNING. A INTENSE 972 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN TO 989 MB 120 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLANDS 
FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE JAN 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EAST DOMAIN TODAY IS THE FORECAST SOLUTION
DIVERGENCE WITH REGARD TO THE INCOMING STORM INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON
RESOLVING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ETA
PREFERS TO BRING THE LOW BACK TO THE WEST FASTER THAN BOTH THE GFS
AND UKMET. THIS SOLUTIONS SEEMS MORE REALISTIC TO WHAT TYPICALLY
OCCURS WITH THESE GULF LOWS. EXPECTING THE UPPER CENTER TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE GULF THE LIKELY TRACK WOULD BE TO THE WEST AND REMAIN
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE GULF THAN BOTH THE UKMET AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS
RESULTS IN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST WIND IN THE GULF OFFSHORE
REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY TO MARINE AREA 120. WE EXPECT THE
TYPICAL NORTHEAST WIND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT OF THIS STORM MOVES TO JUST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IS STRONGER GAP WINDS ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE COLD DENSE
AIR WILL FORCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN GAPS. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS
STORM WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IF ANY PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY. CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONG RADIATION COOLING, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN COOK
INLET TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. BY
THURSDAY THE MOISTURE MAY PUSH INLAND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA. THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME
IS LOWER DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHICH IN TURN SHOULD
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL REGION AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

IN THE WEST THE ISSUE IS THE INCOMING STORM AND FRONT TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. STRONG WIND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SHOULD HIT
WARNING LEVELS BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING HOURS THEN RAPIDLY DROP OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR ADAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REDUCE THE WIND
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE NOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA ARE RESULTING IN NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. TYPICAL
COLD ADVECTION TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PREVALENT ACROSS THESE AREAS
TODAY. TONIGHT THE RIDGE MOVES EAST REDUCING THE COLD ADVECTION
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
WELL AS DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WIND.

ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST A WEAK UPPER AND SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING
UP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS IS PRODUCING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW IS NOT IDENTIFIED WELL BY ANY OF
THE MODELS. THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE FELL BETWEEN THE UPPER AIR
DATA POINTS THIS MORNING LEAVING THIS A BIG QUESTION MARK. SURFACED
BASED OBSERVATIONS THUS FAR TODAY INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THIS WILL RESULT
IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT
A MINIMUM WE EXPECT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MODERATE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 191.
MARINE...STORM 176 410. GALE 130 132 172 175 350 410. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY 179 185 410.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM JAN 06