Small Craft Advisory 653, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE JUL 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z RUNS THE GFS AND WRF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON GULF OF
ALASKA LOW.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DISSIPATES. A MODEST RIDGE FORMS OVER THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY...THE GFS POSITIONS THIS LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FURTHER EAST THAN WRF ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  BY VIRTUE OF THE
MODEL TYPES...HEMISPHERIC VERSUS LIMITED AREA AND THE FACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS ON THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE WRF...LEANING TOWARD GFS
SOLUTION.  IN EITHER CASE WITH RIDGE OVER GULF OF ALASKA THIS SHOULD
MAKE FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AT LEAST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND BRISTOL BAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHWEST SHOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE SUN FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.  COASTAL ZONES PROBABLY HAVE CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT OF
ONSHORE FLOW.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY OVER INTERIOR FOR
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  APPEARS THAT DEVELOPING BERING SEA STORM WILL
IMPACT SOUTHWEST ZONES BEGINNING MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SEE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
FIRE WEATHER...NOON

 JUL 06