Small Craft Advisory 652, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 261148
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU AND FRI.

$$

PKZ120-270200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-270200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-270200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SW 20
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-270200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED JUL 26 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE JUL 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z RUNS THE GFS AND WRF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON GULF OF
ALASKA LOW.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DISSIPATES. A MODEST RIDGE FORMS OVER THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY...THE GFS POSITIONS THIS LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FURTHER EAST THAN WRF ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  BY VIRTUE OF THE
MODEL TYPES...HEMISPHERIC VERSUS LIMITED AREA AND THE FACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS ON THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE WRF...LEANING TOWARD GFS
SOLUTION.  IN EITHER CASE WITH RIDGE OVER GULF OF ALASKA THIS SHOULD
MAKE FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AT LEAST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND BRISTOL BAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHWEST SHOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE SUN FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.  COASTAL ZONES PROBABLY HAVE CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT OF
ONSHORE FLOW.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY OVER INTERIOR FOR
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  APPEARS THAT DEVELOPING BERING SEA STORM WILL
IMPACT SOUTHWEST ZONES BEGINNING MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SEE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
FIRE WEATHER...NOON

 JUL 06