Small Craft Advisory 61, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT.
GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WARM BIAS ALONG NORTH GULF AND ETA COLD. PROBABLY
WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. GFS MODEL GENERALLY USED OUT WEST AND
ETA EAST. WILL ADJUST ETA TEMPS UP SOME ALONG THE NORTH GULF.

.EAST...ETA OVERALL USED IN FORECAST. DEVELOPING 990S LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND(PWS) TONIGHT AND
WEAKENS THROUGH TODAY. STRONGER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL FOLLOW
SIMILAR TRACK AND END UP IN PWS SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON.

FIRST IN SERIES OF LOWS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SNOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SOUTHCENTRAL(101/111) WITH MODERATE AMOUTNS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI
PEN AND NORTH GULF COAST. DYNAMICS LOOK FAIRLY GOOD WITH THIS ONE.
SOUTH FLOW STARTING FROM 850 MB WILL ENHANCE QPFS ALONG NORTH GULF
COAST. OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SAT BEFORE
NEXT SHOT SAT NIGHT.

SECOND IN SERIES OF LOWS TO MOVE INTO PWS HAS MUCH STRONGER DYNAMICS
AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOUTCENTRAL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. WILL GO WITH A WATCH FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

.WEST...GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OVER
THE DELTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND PROBABLY INTO SUN.
WINDS DROP OFF MON AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION.

BRISK NORTH BLOW OFF ICE PAC NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS IS PICKING UP
MOISTURE AND PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SAT AS FLOW
WEAKENS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA SUN AND PRODUCE STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN AFTERNOON AND MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195. HVY SNOW WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT
UPCOMING FOR ZONE 101 AND 111.

MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGES.

RMC JAN 06