Gale Warning 73, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 210323 CCB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
620 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

CORRECTED ZONE 140 FOR ICE FREE WATERS.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TO OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW DISSIPATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 977
MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT TONIGHT MOVES TO OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES TO 966 MB.     

$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-211500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE WIND 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
620 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING NORTH OF KALGIN
ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 KT
SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT.
GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WARM BIAS ALONG NORTH GULF AND ETA COLD. PROBABLY
WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. GFS MODEL GENERALLY USED OUT WEST AND
ETA EAST. WILL ADJUST ETA TEMPS UP SOME ALONG THE NORTH GULF.

.EAST...ETA OVERALL USED IN FORECAST. DEVELOPING 990S LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND(PWS) TONIGHT AND
WEAKENS THROUGH TODAY. STRONGER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL FOLLOW
SIMILAR TRACK AND END UP IN PWS SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON.

FIRST IN SERIES OF LOWS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SNOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SOUTHCENTRAL(101/111) WITH MODERATE AMOUTNS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI
PEN AND NORTH GULF COAST. DYNAMICS LOOK FAIRLY GOOD WITH THIS ONE.
SOUTH FLOW STARTING FROM 850 MB WILL ENHANCE QPFS ALONG NORTH GULF
COAST. OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SAT BEFORE
NEXT SHOT SAT NIGHT.

SECOND IN SERIES OF LOWS TO MOVE INTO PWS HAS MUCH STRONGER DYNAMICS
AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOUTCENTRAL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. WILL GO WITH A WATCH FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

.WEST...GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OVER
THE DELTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND PROBABLY INTO SUN.
WINDS DROP OFF MON AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION.

BRISK NORTH BLOW OFF ICE PAC NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS IS PICKING UP
MOISTURE AND PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SAT AS FLOW
WEAKENS. RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA SUN AND PRODUCE STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN AFTERNOON AND MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195. HVY SNOW WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT
UPCOMING FOR ZONE 101 AND 111.

MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGES.

RMC JAN 06