Small Craft Advisory 556, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN JUN 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...

12Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO MAIN UPPER LOWS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS
THIS MORNING. THE FIRST LOW HAS BEEN SPINNING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA FOR
WELL OVER A WEEK AND THE SECOND LOW IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA SEPERATING THE TWO. AT THE
SURFACE...MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA IS UNDER BROAD EASTERLY CYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ALONG WITH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY REGION. IN THE
WEST...A FRONT IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA BACK TO
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW...BRINGING THE STANDARD RAIN AND WIND TO THE
ALEUTIANS WITH ATKA RECEIVING WELL OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA REMAIN UNDER LOW STRATUS...A RESULT OF THE WEAK
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF
THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFTS NORTH. AS
THE LOW PULLS CLOSER TO THE COAST...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP CLOUDY AND RAINY
WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY WHILE
THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD ADD TO THE INSTABILITY INLAND...ALLOWING FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE FRONT OVER THE ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AS THE
PARENT LOW MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. EXPECT WIND AND RAIN TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOFS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY...ALOOWING FOR A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND
THUS FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST.
RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO BRISTOL BAY...CUTTING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE
THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT IN THE BERING CONTINUES EAST AND MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE YK DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND SUNNIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALASKA AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST WHILE SHOWERS MOVE INTO MAINLAND SW ALASKA
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE FARTHER INLAND.

EXTENDED...WET WEATHER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. A WET PATTERN SHAPES UP BY LATER IN THE
WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SHORWAVE PHASES WITH THE MAIN LOW IN
THE ARCTIC...PLACING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 165 170 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

WOOD JUN 06