Small Craft Advisory 531, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE JUN 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STILL NO CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA WILL STILL
PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THURSDAY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS INTO THE
STATE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY ALONG WITH NEXT SYSTEM IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE 300 MB JET STAYS WELL TO
THE SOUTH RUNNING ALONG 45N KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF.

THE MODELS CONTINUE INITIALIZED VERY WELL. THEY REMAIN IN SHORT TERM
AGREEMENT BUT THE PARALLEL NAM DIVERTS FROM THE NAM AND GFS AT 36 HRS
BY DRIVING THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EASTWARD AND WEAKENING IT TO
A TROUGH BY 48 HRS. THIS IS THE SECOND MODEL RUN THAT THIS HAPPENS.
WILL SEE IF THE GFS 12Z RUN CATCHES UP TO THIS SOLUTION. OTHERWISE
THE NAM/GFS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUDS TODAY AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
AREAS TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING BY WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KB JUN 06